College football win totals: The stories behind the early overs and unders
Nine teams have already beaten their preseason win totals, while eight can no longer reach the over. Here’s what drove the early results in CFBDepth’s Win Total Tracker.
By Jack Walsh · Published
Seventeen college football teams have already settled their preseason win totals, and November has not even arrived. Nine have exceeded their preseason expectations in CFBDepth’s tracker, while eight already have their fate decided based on remaining games. Some have surged past modest expectations behind a breakout quarterback or an opportunistic defense, while others have watched promising starts unravel in conference play. The outcomes are settled for 17 of 138 FBS teams, but each arrived there differently. Here is what has driven the nine early overs and eight early unders.
Oregon State: Over 3.5 wins
Oregon State has moved beyond a modest preseason outlook behind one of the country’s most productive passing combinations. Braden Atkinson has thrown 24 touchdown passes against just two interceptions, while Jesse Legree has recorded at least 100 receiving yards in each of his first seven games. Their consistency has given the Beavers an offensive foundation for the rest of the season and a reason to raise their ambitions well beyond clearing four wins.
UCLA: Over 6.5 wins
Wayne Knight gave UCLA an immediate source of points, rushing for 10 touchdowns in its first five games. Ta’Shawn James supplied a similar lift on defense, collecting four interceptions by midseason. That combination has given the Bruins answers on both sides of the ball: a runner who can finish possessions and a secondary capable of taking them away. Those strengths have helped carry UCLA past a 6.5-win preseason line.
Kentucky: Over 4.5 wins
Kentucky has consistently come out ahead in the exchange of possessions. Through seven games, the Wildcats had intercepted 11 passes while their offense had thrown only one. Kenny Minchey’s ball security has complemented a secondary featuring Ty Bryant and Jordan Castell, giving Kentucky opportunities without surrendering many through the air. Minchey has also delivered in the tightest moments, supplying the winning two-point conversions in consecutive overtime victories against South Carolina and LSU.
Massachusetts: Over 2.5 wins
UMass needed only three games to clear 2.5 wins. William “Pop” Watson III and the Minutemen scored at least 35 points in every game of a 4-0 September, beginning with a victory at Rutgers that immediately reset expectations. Four consecutive losses have since complicated the picture, but the over was already secure. That productive first month explains why UMass belongs on this list, while the October skid shows how much work remains.
Wake Forest: Over 5.5 wins
Gio Lopez has supplied Wake Forest with the kind of quarterback play that can change a season’s expectations. Through seven games, he accounted for 23 total touchdowns against just one turnover, helping the Demon Deacons average more than 37 points. The production has continued in conference play, where he had already thrown 13 touchdown passes. Wake’s offense has paired scoring power with the ball security to make its possessions count.
Boston College: Over 3.5 wins
Boston College has found enough in its running game and secondary to work around an uneven passing attack. The Eagles average 181 rushing yards and have intercepted 10 passes, providing support for Mason McKenzie as the offense searches for greater consistency. Those contributions have helped BC win without requiring a clean performance in every phase. At a preseason line of 3.5, that balance has been enough to secure the over.
Northwestern: Over 5.5 wins
Northwestern’s offense has made a meaningful leap with Chip Kelly calling plays and Aidan Chiles at quarterback. Chiles accounted for 15 touchdowns without an interception through the first five games, when the Wildcats averaged 35.4 points. His ability to threaten defenses as both a passer and runner has expanded the offense and eased the burden on the defense. Northwestern has found the scoring support to turn a modest preseason expectation into six wins with weeks to spare.
UAB: Over 3.5 wins
UAB has cleared its number despite being outscored overall, and Jonah Delange has helped the Blazers make the most of their scoring opportunities. He has converted 17 of 19 field goals, including 10 from at least 40 yards. For an offense averaging 23.3 points, that range and reliability matter. UAB has collected four wins while its broader performance remains uneven, with its kicking game providing a dependable source of points.
Stanford: Over 3.5 wins
Stanford’s progress has been concentrated at home, where the Cardinal have won four of five games while remaining winless on the road. Micah Ford has supplied much of the offense’s substance with 679 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, giving Davis Warren and the passing game support. The road results leave obvious work to do, but Stanford has capitalized on enough home opportunities to clear a line that required just four victories.
Notre Dame: Under 11.5 wins
Notre Dame’s 11.5-win line demanded an unbeaten regular season. CJ Carr threw 16 touchdown passes against one interception during a 6-0 start, but a 28-24 (debated) loss at BYU was enough to settle the under. The Irish could still finish 11-1 and fall short of their preseason total.
Penn State: Under 8.5 wins
Penn State’s 3-0 September gave way to four consecutive Big Ten losses, and the offense has struggled to keep pace. Rocco Becht and the Nittany Lions averaged only 18.5 points during that stretch, with three defeats decided by eight points or fewer. Those margins show how close Penn State has been to changing its season. Its inability to generate a little more offense has instead left it unable to reach the nine wins required.
Oregon: Under 10.5 wins
Oregon has had to manage a quarterback change while struggling to extend drives and protect the ball. Dante Moore’s injury brought Dylan Raiola into the lineup, while the Ducks have converted just 35.1% of their third downs and lost nine fumbles. Those problems have repeatedly cut possessions short and reduced opportunities to score. Combine those issues with the nonsense offense that (now former) OC Drew Mehringer has instituted, and you have a recipe for embarrassment.
Hawaii: Under 7.5 wins
Micah Alejado’s 2,186 passing yards reflect an offense capable of moving the ball, but Hawaii’s finishing numbers explain the frustration: just 14 touchdowns in 30 red-zone trips, with a running game averaging 89.6 yards per game. The Rainbow Warriors have struggled to turn that passing production into consistent scoring. Reaching eight wins required more dependable ways to finish drives than Hawaii has been able to establish.
Kennesaw State: Under 6.5 wins
Three consecutive losses by a combined seven points capture how quickly Kennesaw State’s season slipped away. The Owls fell narrowly to Arkansas State, Jacksonville State and Missouri State, missing three opportunities to change the trajectory of their year. Rickie Collins has directed an offense averaging just 20 points, leaving little breathing room. Kennesaw State has been competitive enough to stay close, but turning those performances into victories has remained the missing step.
Navy: Under 7.5 wins
Jackson Gutierrez has given Navy plenty to build around, rushing for 872 yards and 12 touchdowns. The Midshipmen have undermined that production with turnovers, however, losing eight fumbles on their way to a minus-six turnover margin. For an offense built around sustaining possessions, giving the ball away carries an obvious cost. Navy’s productive running game has been left with too little to show for it in the standings.
Texas A&M: Under 8.5 wins
Texas A&M’s opening blowouts offered little warning of the trouble to come against SEC defenses. Marcel Reed and the Aggies have averaged just 17.4 points in conference play, with six-point performances at both LSU and Missouri exposing the offense’s limitations away from home. The early scoring surge never became dependable conference production. With four losses already, A&M can no longer reach the nine victories needed to clear its preseason number.
Old Dominion: Under 7.5 wins
Old Dominion has rarely scored enough to sustain an eight-win pace. Quinn Henicle and the Monarchs’ offense are averaging 15.5 points, with six consecutive games of 20 or fewer. That leaves the defense little room for error and makes competitive outings difficult to convert into wins. The scoring shortage has persisted across the season, leaving ODU unable to reach an ambitious 7.5-win total.
Follow the remaining win-total races in CFBDepth’s Tools section by selecting Win Total Tracker.
